:: P O S E I D O N Z B L O G ::

The Year is 2050: the place Canada..

The following view comes from a report presented to the Canadian government in June 2006 by the National Roundtable Environment and Energy team(NRTEE). Their concern was to evaluate Greenhouse Gas emissions(GHGs) in terms of necessary reductions to 60 percent of current levels by 2050. This allowed for an increase of population(to 45M = likely); a doubling of the whole Canadian economy(desirable); and oil & gas production growth to greater than domestic demand(= net exporter these resources). Looked at baldly one can see the will of an ambitious nation being met by this model and by these business-minded people. But consequent on the will is the way—the how. Essentially this comes down to resourcing the required energy without its self-defeating problems. Looked at in this way then global warming and its known capacity for inducing climate change is entirely manageable. Requiring 'big picture' management. I take this to mean national government or whole communities management. And this—the way—the how—future democratic governmental role...

It is important to note that this scenario was developed with stringent criteria(given above). This would create a Canada that in 2050 would look like this:

Personal use of energy

Housing densities have increased to the point where 70 per cent of Canadians live in some form of multiple dwelling. With the majority of jobs in services and light manufacturing, these land uses are integrated into residential developments so that it has become common to live and work in the same “walkable” neighbourhood or work at home for several days each week. The average Canadian travels much less than at mid-century; reserving travel more for pleasure than for commuting. Where it is necessary to travel to work, Canadians are now twice as likely to use public transit, which has become more efficient and convenient as a result of higher density and improved design.

Personal vehicles are also more efficient, averaging close to 80 mpg (3.6 L/100 km), and are generally fuelled by ethanol mixed with 15 per cent gasoline. One in five vehicles continues to use propane or compressed natural gas. Canada has developed an ethanol production industry, distributed across the nation, supporting production from western farmers as well as northern communities impacted by the slow reduction in the forestry and pulp and paper industry.

Canadian homes are much more efficient, as well as being more comfortable and durable as a result of efforts over the past several decades to inspect and upgrade the building stock. Solar heating and power systems are viewed as the norm, with one in three single family homes using a solar water heating system and one in 10 now using photovoltaics. Solar systems are associated with progressive new designs as the majority of systems are located in new subdivisions that have been designed to maximize solar access. An active local network of home renovation and energy services business has developed to provide insulation, air sealing and installation and maintenance of solar energy systems.

Energy to drive the economy

Electricity is made by a much more diverse and widely distributed set of generators, including a greatly expanded role for local co-generation and micro-turbine systems, wind power and other renewable sources of power. Canada continues to rely heavily on its hydroelectric resources, and a grid with increased east-west connectivity allows the delivery of a highly reliable power supply that combines the output of the new, distributed sources with some remaining central power plants. Where coal is still used to produce electricity, CO2 capture and sequestration has been designed into the plants. Where possible this captured CO2 is used to enhance oil recovery. Existing nuclear plants are replaced, and an additional 9,200 MW capacity is added in Ontario.

Freight distribution has not changed dramatically since the turn of the century, though reliance on trucks has declined back to 1990 levels with marine and rail transport picking up the difference. The efficiency of the trucks used to move freight has doubled or tripled over the past four decades and on average bio-diesel now provides about 20 per cent of the energy required for the sector.

The industrial structure in Canada has continued its gradual shift to manufacturing, service and high technology manufacturing. Energy intensive industries, while accounting for a declining portion of overall industrial output, have continued to increase their energy efficiency and the value of product produced per unit of energy used.

While domestic energy demands have fallen, the oil and gas industry continues to produce at rates similar to those achieved at the turn of the century, exporting oil and gas to the US and the rest of the world.

In present debates we should not allow ourselves to be drawn from a resolute line that change is upon us and countering its known cause/s necessary. Economic growth, its energy and the population they serve is the issue. The part of that causing problems and which would defeat not only its own contribution but the whole enterprise is where and why re-orientation and redeployments come in. For the greater good: not simply, as now, for the good of greater.

Core to the success of the NRTEE strategy lies greater energy efficiency and conservation. This, they calculate at almost 40 percent of that 60 percent cut in CO2 emissions (= 615 metric tonnes CO2 per annum). Given that renewing existing nuclear generation will cut less than 3 percent on the same basis; that wind-power(renewable) will cut 10 percent; and that biofuels/alternatives will cut 12 percent we get to recognise that the greater consideration is in utilising a diversity of resources. And since some of these will be direct products of locale then opportunities of decentralisation will be desirable. Further, it is worthy of note that emission cuts arising from less intense energy resource use - ie multi-resourced rather than mostly oil or coal-fired - amount to more than 10 percent in the same modelling.

The economic, energy and environmental significance of this model is to suggest a successful way forward via a combination of less/nil CO2-producing energy resources, technological solutions(CO2 sequestration/capture) and greater energy efficiency and conservation. The last of which we can all begin to do immediately with the others to follow as capacity for them builds.

ps: insofar as the powers-that-be are able to function intelligently and not blindly strive after yet more mass market through mass power plant behaviors, I would counsel them to consider the above as their first choice in respect of mankind's needs, and nuclear power proliferation the fallback last choice.

Truly,

Technorati Tags: environment, renewable fuels, climate change, Carbon dioxide, clean coal, global warming, technology, news, economics, energy, faith

Portland Doers Not Doubters re Global Warming

In the following editorial item for the NY Times Nickolas Kristof tells of good reasons to go visit Portland, Oregan..

Another Small Step for Earth - July 30, 2006

The best argument for ignoring global warming has been that there are better ways to spend money: instead of devoting billions to curb carbon emissions and reduce the impact on sea levels in 2050, we could spend the resources developing a vaccine for AIDS or providing universal health care to all Americans.

In essence, the dangers of climate change appeared distant and uncertain, while the costs of curbing greenhouse gases were immediate and appeared substantial.

But all across the country, states and local governments have chipped away at those arguments for delay — actually, pretty much demolished them — by showing that there are myriad small steps we can take that significantly curb carbon emissions and that are easily affordable.

A leader of that effort has been Portland, earnestly green even when it is wintry gray. In 1993, the city adopted a plan to curb greenhouse gases, and it is bearing remarkable fruit: local greenhouse gas emissions are back down to 1990 levels, while nationally they are up 16 percent. And instead of damaging its economy, Portland has boomed.

This month Portland took an important additional step, by adopting a renewable-fuel standard. Beginning July 1, 2007, all diesel sold for vehicles in the city will have to be at least a 5 percent biodiesel blend. And all gasoline will have to contain at least 10 percent ethanol. This measure is not a magic bullet, but it has a negligible cost and is one more example of the creative thinking at local levels that is curbing greenhouse gases without breaking the bank.

Portland joins several states — Minnesota, Washington, Hawaii, Montana, Iowa, Louisiana and Missouri — that have passed similar laws.

“We aren’t confused into thinking that we can change the world,” said Randy Leonard, the city commissioner who sponsored the ordinance, which passed unanimously. “We’re just hoping that we can establish a template to reduce our dependence on foreign oil and promote economic development and reduce greenhouse gases. Then we can send a message.

“We get that we’re an asterisk to the larger issue of oil dependence and global warming,” he added. “But we also think that there isn’t an energy policy in the state or nation that makes sense, and here there is something we can do that does make sense.”

The 5 percent biodiesel works in all diesel vehicles, without any loss of acceleration. The bio- component sometimes comes from discarded restaurant grease; vehicles using it smell faintly of French fries.

The benefit of the 10 percent ethanol requirement is less clear because U.S. ethanol sometimes takes nearly as much petroleum to make (in fuel to run tractors to harvest corn, for example) as it saves. But increasingly we’ll probably be making ethanol from switch grass or sugar cane in ways that are more likely to save petroleum.

Portland customers may end up paying slightly more for gas and diesel because of the new regulation, but city planners say that any increase will be minimal — perhaps a penny or two per gallon.

“This will reduce total emissions by 1 percent,” said Michael Armstrong, a city environmental expert. “It sounds tiny, but if you think that the Kyoto standard is a 7 percent reduction [below 1990 levels], and this one simple move would be 1 percent, then it seems more doable.”

The city is also seeking to ensure that all city government units use power from wind or solar sources by 2010. Portland has changed streetlamps to use low-power bulbs, built bicycle trails to encourage commuting on bike or on foot, and greatly expanded mass transit.

It’s true that the risks of climate change are uncertain, but when encountering other kinds of dangers — like Iran apparently trying to develop nuclear weapons — we don’t shrug and say there’s no point in doing anything because of the uncertainties. The risks of warming are potentially enormous — imagine much of the east coast under water — and our obligation to protect our planet is not just technical but also moral.

So it’s time to abandon the old self-defeating notion that curbing greenhouse gases is too costly to be effective. Portland and other localities are showing that there’s plenty we can do inexpensively, at least in the early phases — if we don’t mind rush-hour traffic smelling of French fries.

I almost didn’t write this column, because with the Middle East in flames it’s obvious that climate change is not the most important topic of the day. But it could be the most important issue of this century.

Thank you, NK, a valuable contribution,

Truly,

Technorati Tags: green, energy, environment, technology, pollution, global warming, faith

Post:: Prince William Sound(Alaska) 1989 ::

Seventeen years after Exxon Valdez spilled more than 11 million gallons of crude oil into Alaska’s Prince William Sound, researchers have concluded that the ecosystem has fully recovered. The study was conducted by Dr. Mark Harwell and Dr. Jack Gentile and appears in the upcoming July 2006 issue of Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management.

After examination of thousands of pages of ecological and environmental investigation documents, Harwell and Gentile concluded that residual petroleum hydrocarbons from the oil spill no longer represent an ecologically significant threat to Prince William Sound. The authors maintain that there is no evidence of any residual effects from the oil spill on aquatic invertebrates, fish, birds, mammals, or on the habitat and surrounding wilderness. With the exception of reduced numbers of animals in one pod of orca whales and one subpopulation of sea otters, the authors concluded that the Prince William Sound ecosystem has effectively recovered from the Exxon Valdez oil spill.

The authors further maintain that there are other ongoing challenges to the ecosystem, including climate change, increased tourism and shipping, invasive species, and over-exploitation of marine resources that appear to pose more significant challenges to the environment than the oil spill.

The study is important and timely in light of the 17th anniversary of the oil spill and recent legal questions raised by state and federal environmental agencies addressing concerns that effects attributed to the oil spill are still evident. In May, the Alaska state legislature went on record as supporting the use of the "reopener" provision in the original settlement with ExxonMobil, allowing the state to pursue an additional $100 million in damages at any time between 2002 and 2006.

In the original settlement signed in 1991, ExxonMobil paid $900 million over a 10-year period ending in 2001 to state and federal governments for damages resulting from the grounding of the Exxon Valdez oil tanker on March 24, 1989.

To read the entire study, click here

[h/t:SETAC]

Truly,

Technorati Tags: pollution, energy, environment, fishing, green, oceans

The GW Science IN: what to do?

My readers will already know that included in any answer that I would give to this question would be that whatever you do begin its process without delay. That said, I'm posting today with a very constructive report in the Anchorage Daily News about education and society's constituting sustainable data and capabilities for the decisions they will have to make on a continuing dynamic basis..

Scientists teach students about effects of Arctic global warming: — datelined July 3, 2006 at 12:44 AM - by Kate Cheney Davidson

FAIRBANKS -- Surrounded by a fine cloud of silt and below-freezing temperatures, 15 teenagers quietly watched as permafrost researcher Daniel Fortier pointed out a dark triangular stain in the tunnel wall.

"This is an ice wedge," Fortier explained. "As the soil warms, the ice melts and creates sinkholes."

The underground permafrost tunnel, built by the U.S. Army in the 1960s and now a research facility, was just part of a recent workshop for Alaska high school students on the impacts of global warming taught by top climate scientists.

A collaboration between the University of Alaska Fairbanks Arctic research center and the Alaska Youth for Environmental Action, the one-day workshop included presentations from scientists and students. After a lunchtime discussion over pizza, scientists escorted teens to thermokarst (a depression formed by melting permafrost) sites and the Army's permafrost tunnel to see firsthand the effects of the state's changing climate.

The workshop caps a yearlong campaign by the environmental youth group, a program of the National Wildlife Federation, to increase awareness about global warming among their peers and political leaders. This spring, six students from the statewide group traveled to Washington, D.C., to meet with Alaska's congressional delegation, urging them to take action on global warming. With them was a petition signed by 5,000 Alaska youths.

Their plea seemed to make an impact on Sen. Lisa Murkowski, who suggested that the teens meet with scientists at the University of Alaska to learn more about the issue.

"I'm delighted you're taking the initiative to go ahead with this briefing," said Murkowski in a phone call to workshop participants. "People around the country and the world are watching Alaska, so it's important to understand the science to the extent we have knowledge."

Besides the five members of the environmental youth group, 10 other high school students, mostly from rural communities, were in attendance. They are all participants in a new UAF summer research internship program designed to give rural and Alaska Native youth a taste of scientific research at one of the nation's top research facilities. The program is being funded by several arms of the National Science Foundation and UAF's International Arctic Research Center.

"We're hoping this program will encourage them to attend college," said Elena Sparrow, education outreach director for the Arctic research center.

Leah David, 17, of Huslia is working on a reindeer feeding program.

"Where I live, the weather is changing," she said of her village on the Koyukuk River. "People say it's affecting hunting, and the permafrost is melting."

Youth group students kicked off the workshop with a presentation of their yearlong global warming campaign. Megan Waggoner, 16, of Tok called global warming a "youth crisis" and said state youth group chapters will focus this year on potential solutions like renewable energy.

Larry Hinzman of the Arctic research center welcomed the students by encouraging them to become involved with the issue on a scientific level.

"We want to gauge your interest and see where we need to focus our research in the future."

But when it came to the question of how to respond and adapt to the changes scientists are documenting, Hinzman said, "that's going to be your problem to solve."

Arctic center scientist John Walsh introduced the big picture of climate change and seemed to set a theme among the presentations that challenged students not to oversimplify the issue.

"There is overwhelming evidence that warming is happening but not at the same rate or for the same reasons," Walsh said. For example, in Alaska the most impressive warming has occurred in the Interior, between the Brooks and Alaska ranges, because it lacks the ocean's cooling influence, he said.

Students also heard how ocean currents were changing as a result of rising sea temperatures from oceanographer Harper Simmons, and the impacts of pests and drying conditions on Alaska's boreal forests from forest ecologist Glenn Juday. Professor Doug Goering of the Mechanical Engineering Department talked about the engineering challenges to the state's roads and buildings as a result of melting permafrost.

Students' response to the presentations were mixed.

Tim Treuer, 17, of Anchorage said it was the first time he had heard about the issue from scientists themselves.

"I'm sort of a science nerd, so I find this stuff rewarding," he said. Treuer heads to Harvard University in the fall to study organismic and evolutionary biology.

"It's alarming," admitted Gabrielle Vance, 17, of Anchorage. "I think it's a burden but also an opportunity." She added that perhaps global warming was the issue that would define her generation.

Truly,

Technorati Tags: global warming, oceans, environment, energy, faith, science, climate change